Identificar los principales elementos que deben ser considerados en un análisis prospectivo de la frontera colombo-venezolana constituye el objetivo principal de este artículo. Primero, se examina el vínculo de la prospectiva con el riesgo político y con los factores que inciden en su análisis. En segundo lugar, se plantean los aspectos metodológicos basados en la revisión de análisis académicos históricos y coyunturales, de artículos de prensa, y estudios de caso empíricos mediante grupos focales y entrevistas a expertos en el tema para la construcción de indicadores, métodos y escenarios.The main objective of this article is to isolate the key factors that need to be taken into account in a prospective analysis of the Colombo-Venezuelan border. In the first place, the links between prospective analysis and political risk assessment are examined. Next both are related to the features which are relevant to their study. Next, methodological issues are discussed based on a review of historical and current academic studies, press reports and case studies built on the results of focus groups and interviews with experts. These materials are used to develop a methodology, build indicators and establish plausible scenarios.